• Complexity Programme

• Clare College, Cambridge

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At the beginning of the 21^st century, mankind faces environmental challenges as diverse as climate change, natural hazards (disease, droughts, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, volcanoes), the loss of biodiversity and the need for sustainable development. At first sight complexity science seems a natural way to address environmental issues because it is designed to explain the properties and behaviours of systems with many interacting parts. Classic signatures of complexity in the earth system include nonlinear response, long ranged correlation and teleconnections, heavy tailed fluctuations and enhanced likelihood of extreme events.

The new science of complexity has made significant theoretical progress in understanding this kind of behaviour, notably through:

• Modern nonlinear time series analysis and the theory of dynamical systems
• Non-Brownian motion – random walks and anomalous diffusion
• Collective phenomena – networks and extreme fluctuations
• Self-organisation, and pattern formation

but fundamental and practical challenges remain in testing how well complexity science can really explain “real world” data.

A timely challenge is thus detailed comparison of the new theories with the fullest range of observed natural complexity. Our meeting aims both to highlight the contribution that complexity theories are already making to high-priority problems in earth system science and to present them with new observational challenges. An important outcome will be increased dialogue between the earth sciences and the complexity sciences, leading to better understanding and new collaborations.