Short Term Satellite Risk Index (SatRisk-short)

The graph indicates the current level of risk to satellites in low earth orbit, medium earth orbit and geostationary orbit. The index is weighted towards predicting risk due to electrostatic discharge anomalies, probably mainly from internal charging. The graph shows our predictions over the past month and for the next 6 days.

Green indicates the period of lowest risk

This is when the latest observations indicate calm space weather, and there has not been a recent magnetic storm.

Amber indicates a period of possible risk.

This is when the latest observations indicate that a storm might be about to begin.

Red indicates the highest risk periods.

These are the first six days after the prediction of a storm onset, when we have shown that there as an increased likelihood of satellite failures.

These satellite risks have been predicted using the following space weather data sources:

• Quick look Dst index provided by Toyo Kamei, World Data Centre for Geomagnetism (WDC-C2), Kyoto, Japan.
• Real-time data from the ACE satellite prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center.

The assessment of satellite risk is based upon the identification of magnetic storms using a forecast of the Dst space weather index. More information on the Dst forecast, and how we turn this into a satellite risk assessment.