1 INTRODUCTION

2 AN OVERVIEW OF THE METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY OF THE ANTARCTIC.

2.1 The physical environment of the Antarctic.

2.1.1 The polar cell in the three cell structure of the Earth’s atmosphere.

2.1.2 Radiation and heat balances.

2.1.3 Orography.

2.2 The Ocean Areas.

2.2.1 The surface ocean circulation pattern.

2.2.2 The sea ice and its annual changes.

2.3 The role of the Antarctic in the Global Climate System.

2.3.1 The heat balance.

2.3.2 The moisture and water balance.

2.4 Synoptic–scale weather systems in the Antarctic.

2.4.1 Depression occurrence.

2.4.2 Cyclogenesis.

2.4.3 Depression tracks.

2.4.4 Cyclolysis.

2.4.5 Difference between rates of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis

2.4.6 Weather systems over the interior

2.5 Mesocyclones.

2.5.1 The general characteristics of mesocyclones.

2.5.2 Spatial distribution.

2.5.3 Temporal variability.

2.6 Mean values of the main meteorological elements.

2.6.1 Pressure at Mean Sea Level.

2.6.2 The upper–air height field.

2.6.3 Surface air temperature.

2.6.4 The continental surface temperature inversion.

2.6.5 Cloud, white–out and surface and horizon definition.

2.6.6 Precipitation/Accumulation.

2.6.7 The wind field.

2.6.8 Visibility including blizzards/blowing snow.. 51

2.7 Recent changes in the Antarctic.. 51

2.7.1 Trends in the surface observations. 51

2.7.2 Ozone over Antarctica. 53

2.7.3 Recent changes to Antarctic ice shelves. 55

2.8 Some aspects of Antarctic ice.. 63

2.8.1 Ice terminology and classification. 63

2.8.2 Freezing of sea water 66

2.8.3 Formation and dissipation of sea ice. 66

2.8.4 Ice drift 72

2.8.5 Icebreakers. 73

2.8.6 Sea ice information services. 74

3 THE FORECASTING REQUIREMENT.. 77

3.1 Introduction.. 77

3.2 Overview of general meteorological and forecasting requirements. 77

3.3 Meteorological services. 78

3.3.1 Environmental conditions and climatological study. 78

3.3.2 Forecasting facilities. 79

3.3.3 Forecast services. 80

3.4 Forecasting requirements for aircraft operations. 81

3.4.1 Intercontinental operations. 81

3.4.2 Aircraft requirements within the Antarctic. 83

3.4.3 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres. 85

3.5 Forecasting requirements for marine, station/field and research activities 89

3.5.1 Forecasting requirements for marine activities in Antarctic. 89

3.5.2 Forecasting requirements for station/field and research activities in Antarctica. 91

4 DATA AVAILABILITY AND CHARACTERISTICS. 92

4.1 In situ observations. 92

4.1.1 Conventional reporting stations. 92

4.1.2 Automatic Weather Stations. 93

4.1.3 Drifting buoys. 96

4.2 NWP model fields. 102

4.2.1 Introduction. 102

4.2.2 Use of primary model output variables. 105

4.2.3 Use of conceptual models. 108

4.2.4 Use of independent data – assessing whether the model is “on track”. 109

4.2.5 NWP systems and the Antarctic. 110

4.3 Information on relevant satellites and their data.. 111

4.3.1 A summary of weather–related satellites existing in 2004. 112

4.3.2 A summary of weather–related satellites to be launched post–2004. 118

4.3.3 Applications/uses of satellite data. 121

5 ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES. 145

5.1 Analysis and diagnosis fundamentals. 145

5.1.1 Overview.. 145

5.1.2 Basic observations. 146

5.1.3 Mean sea level pressure analysis and satellite data. 146

5.1.4 Upper–air analysis. 147

5.1.5 Meteograms or time series. 147

5.1.6 Quantitative values. 147

5.2 More on conventional surface and frontal analysis. 149

5.2.1 Fronts near the Antarctic continent 149

5.2.2 Conventional analysis over the oceans. 149

5.3 Additional aids to analysis over the ocean.. 150

5.3.1 Techniques for estimating MSLP. 150

.3.2 Techniques for upper–air analysis. 152

5.4 Analysis over the interior.. 155

5.4.1 Streamline analysis. 157

5.4.2 Use of model sigma surface data. 157

5.4.3 Estimating 500–hPa or 700–hPa geopotential heights from AWS observations. 159

6 THE FORECASTING PROCESS. 164

6.1 The systematic approach to forecasting.. 164

6.1.1 Getting to know the physical environment of the area for which forecasts are being prepared. 164

6.1.2 Getting to know an area's climatology. 165

6.1.3 Major steps in short–term forecasting. 165

6.2 The Forecast Funnel.

6.3 Long waves. 175

6.3.1 Some general concepts. 175

6.3.2 Some specific examples of long waves in the Antarctic context 177

6.4 Synoptic scale systems and fronts. 180

6.4.1 Forecasting strategies. 180

6.5 Mesoscale systems, in particular, mesocyclones. 181

6.5.1 Some general concepts. 181

6.5.2 Mesocyclones. 183

6.6 Forecasting the main meteorological elements. 186

6.6.1 Surface wind. 186

6.6.2 Upper–level winds. 194

6.6.3 Clouds. 195

6.6.4 Visibility and fog. 200

6.6.5 Surface contrast 206

6.6.6 Horizontal definition. 207

6.6.7 Precipitation. 207

6.6.8 Temperature and wind–chill factor 208

6.6.9 Aircraft icing. 209

6.6.10 Turbulence. 211

6.6.11 Sea ice. 217

6.6.12 Waves and swell 219

6.6.13 Hydraulic jumps (Loewe's phenomena) 223

7 FORECASTING AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. 227

7.1 The scope of this chapter.. 227

7.2 Representative sub–Antarctic Islands. 228

7.2.1 The Falkland Islands. 228

7.2.2 South Georgia. 235

7.2.3 Gough Island. 238

7.2.4 Bouvetoya. 242

7.2.5 Marion Island. 242

7.2.6 Crozet Islands. 246

7.2.7 Kerguelen Islands. 250

7.2.8 Heard and McDonald Islands. 253

7.2.9 Macquarie Island. 258

7.3 Antarctic Peninsula Sector.. 262

7.3.1 Signy Island and Laurie Island, South Orkney Islands. 266

7.3.2 King George Island, South Shetland Islands. 268

7.3.3 Greenwich, Robert and Media Luna Islands, South Shetland Islands. 276

7.3.4 Deception Island, South Shetland Islands. 278

7.3.5 Trinity Peninsula. 281

7.3.6 The West–Central Section of the Antarctic Peninsula. 286

7.3.7 Marguerite Bay/Adelaide Island. 291

7.3.8 Fossil Bluff, King George VI Sound. 298

7.3.9 Ski Hi/Ski Blu. 301

7.3.10 The Larsen Ice Shelf. 304

7.4 Ronne and Filchner Ice Shelves. 307

7.4.1 Haag Nunataks. 307

7.4.2 Shelf Depot 309

7.4.3 Berkner Island. 311

7.5 Coats Land and Dronning (Queen) Maud Land.. 313

7.5.1 Belgrano II Station. 314

7.5.2 Halley Station. 317

7.5.3 Aboa and Wasa Bases. 320

7.5.4 Atka Bay–Neumayer Station–Cape Norwegia. 321

7.5.5 SANAE Station. 328

7.5.6 Troll and Tor Stations. 332

7.5.7 Maitri and Dakshin Gangotri Stations. 333

7.5.8 Novolazarevskaya Station. 342

7.5.9 Inland of Syowa (Asuka, Mizuho, Dome Fuji) 346

7.5.10 Syowa Station. 350

7.6 Enderby Land and Kemp Land.. 354

7.6.1 Molodezhnaya Station. 354

7.6.2 Mount King. 362

7.7 Mac. Robertson Land.. 367

7.7.1 Mawson Station. 367

7.7.2 Prince Charles Mountains (including Soyuz Base) 373

7.8 Princess Elizabeth Land and Wilhelm II Land.. 377

7.8.1 The Larsemann Hills and Law Base. 377

7.8.2 Progress Station and Druzhnaya–IV Base. 381

7.8.3 Zhongshan Station. 384

7.8.4 Davis Station. 390

7.9 Queen Mary Land.. 395

7.9.1 Mirny Station. 395

7.9.2 Edgeworth David Base (Bunger Hills) 401

7.10 Wilkes Land.. 407

7.10.1 Casey Station including Law Dome Summit 407

7.10.2 Vostok Station. 414

7.10.3 Concordia (Dôme C) Station. 420

7.11 Terre Adélie and George V Lands. 423

7.11.1 Dumont d'Urville Station. 423

7.11.2 Port Martin, Commonwealth Bay and Cape Denison. 428

7.12 Oates Land, Victoria Land, the Transantarctic Mountains, the Ross Ice Shelf, and the South Pole area.. 431

.12.1 Leningradskaya Station. 433

7.12.2 Terra Nova Bay Station. 438

7.12.3 McMurdo Station (inc. Scott Base) 452

7.12.4 Transantarctic Mountains. 461

7.12.5 Amundsen–Scott (South Pole) Station. 464

7.12.6 Ross Ice Shelf Camps. 470

7.13 Edward VII Land, Marie Byrd Land, and Ellsworth Land.. 473

7.13.1 Russkaya Station. 475

7.13.2 Byrd Station. 478

7.13.3 The Patriot Hills–Teniente Parodi 481

8 REFERENCES. 484

APPENDIX 1 – A LIST (TABLE 7.1.1) OF ANTARCTIC AND SUB–ANTARCTIC METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS AND AWSs 505

APPENDIX 2 – CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (TABLES & FIGURES) FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS IN THE ANTARCTIC 512

APPENDIX 3 – "REPRESENTATIVE" ANTARCTIC ATMOSPHERES. 596

APPENDIX 4 – A SUGGESTED TRAINING PROGRAMME FOR ANTARCTIC WEATHER FORECASTERS 622

APPENDIX 5 – DETAILED LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS. 660