A comparison of five numerical weather prediction analysis climatologies in southern high latitudes

In this paper we compare numerical weather prediction analyses from four major centers - the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO). Two of the analysis series - ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and NCEP - are reanalyses , ie the data have recently been processed through a consistent, modern analysis system. The other three - ABM, ECMWF operational (EOP) and UKMO - are archived from operational analyses.

Our primary focus in this paper is on the period 1979-1993, the period used for the reanalyses, and on climatology. However, we shall also compare ABM and NCEP for the period before 1979. We shall be concerned with basic variables - mean sea level pressure, height of the 500 hPa surface, and near-surface temperature - that are available from the basic analysis step, rather than more derived quantities (such as precipitation) which are only available from the forecast step.

ERA, EOP and UKMO are found to be best for MSLP; UKMO and EOP for 500 hPa height; and none of the analyses perform well for near-surface temperature.