3.1                                   Introduction

In recent years there has been a huge increase in the number of people visiting the Antarctic continent for scientific research activities, on vessels re–supplying the research stations, as part of private expeditions, on tourist vessels and even on aircraft conducting tourist over–flights. For example, at the International Symposium on Operational Weather Forecasting in Antarctica held in Hobart, during September 1998, M. Betts (see Turner et al., 2000a) described the rapidly increasing number of tourist operations working in the Antarctic and the large number of private expeditions arriving on the continent. For the first time in recent years the number of tourists has exceeded the number of government sponsored expeditioners with there currently being about 10,000 tourists per year. Tourism operators expect the number of Antarctic tourists to reach 14,000 per annum very shortly and demand for meteorological forecasting support in the future will be increasingly from the tourism operators rather than from the government sponsored expeditions.

Now although weather forecasts have been attempted since the very first voyages to Antarctica took place, the increasing complexity of modern logistical activities on the continent means that ever more specialised and accurate forecasts are required. For example, many operators use small fixed–wing aircraft equipped with both skis and wheels to deploy and recover field parties at isolated locations in the interior of the continent. The fuel for such flights has to be brought into the Antarctic via ship and for flights well away from the research stations has to be placed in depots at more southerly locations. With accurate forecasts of upper winds and the weather at the destination, the timing of such flights and the route/flight level used can be optimised to conserve the fuel required. Of particular importance is the need to avoid fights that are aborted close to the destination because of bad weather, since the cost in wasted fuel will be considerable.

The consideration of weather analyses and forecasts is therefore an important part of planning field activities in the Antarctic. And more generally, most outdoor Antarctic activities require weather forecasts to ensure that they are conducted in a safe manner in what is a harsh and dangerous environment, even in the summer months when most visits occur. The following sections concentrate mostly on aviation forecast requirements, as this sector is arguably the most weather sensitive.