3.5                                   Forecasting requirements for marine, station/field and research activities

3.5.1                                Forecasting requirements for marine activities in Antarctic

Although the actual number of vessels operating in Antarctic and Southern Ocean waters is unknown, it is likely that, over the Austral summer at least, there is a significant amount of marine activity covering a wide variety of purposes. These include:

·                         re–supply of Antarctic stations using ships due to the volume and weight of cargo and the number of personnel involved;

·                         marine science voyages;

·                         resource exploration;

·                         fishing;

·                         monitoring illegal activity;

·                         and inshore small boat activity, for example, biological surveys.

While generally less sensitive to inclement weather than aviation, the marine sector nevertheless benefits from the provision of timely and accurate weather forecasting services. In most cases a text–based general high seas forecast would be obtained that covers wind velocity and sea state (sea and swell).

For the high seas the WMO Marine Programme co-ordinates the dissemination of warnings and weather and sea bulletins according to a broadcast schedule, in conformity with procedures laid down under the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) protocols within the Safety of Life at Sea convention (SOLAS). For broadcast purposes, the world's oceans are divided into a number of areas of responsibility called METAREAS (see Figure 3.5.1.1). South Africa, for example, is responsible for METAREA VII that includes the Southern Ocean down to the Antarctic coast, from 20º W to 80º E. Because this is such a large area of responsibility the South African Weather Bureau (SAWB) does not routinely issue forecasts for the areas south of 40º S – vessels have to request for these areas to be included.

Similarly, during the mid 1990s the AMC at Casey had been issuing graphical representations of the high seas forecasts for the area south of 50º S between 80º E and 160º E. Recently this service has been replaced by a web–based service from the Australian National Meteorological Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) in Melbourne (see, for example, Figure 3.5.1.2). The URL for this service is:

 http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/casey.shtml.

For ships operating near the coast, sea ice information is of importance. Direct read out satellite imagery is of most use: these data might be obtained from onboard APT or HRPT/DMSP receiving equipment. Also of value are sea ice analyses that might be obtainable from sources such as the US National Ice Center (see Section 2.8.6).

Marine science cruises are often supported by their own onboard meteorologists who use the various fax–based; web–based; and/or onboard satellite imaging systems, together with single station forecasting techniques to provide a forecast service. This service may include an aviation component where aircraft (usually helicopters) are used to provide additional logistical and navigational support to the cruise.

3.5.2                                Forecasting requirements for station/field and research activities in Antarctica

For most Antarctic stations there is no dedicated weather forecasting service available on a year round basis. Occasionally, a station might request an ad hoc forecast service for a winter traverse or a similar venture. Usually, however, station activities proceed on the basis of "hoping for the best but preparing for the worst", in other words, station management insist on expeditioners taking all possible care when going about their outdoor tasks, and in particular keep a close watch on the weather.

On the other hand, during the Austral summer, many stations have their numbers increased due to scientific and maintenance personnel, and field camps are established from which scientists conduct their research. It is during this period, when aircraft might be ferrying people and cargo between stations/ships/field camps, or when aircraft are deploying scientific personnel in the field, or when there is an increase recreational activity by staff who leave the station for a break, that a routine forecast service is often requested.

The style of such a service will vary according to the need, but in general it would include reference to wind and precipitation, and perhaps include a wind–chill and a statement on the risk of blizzards. Usually such forecasts are less detailed than the aviation service due to less stringent requirements.