Change in annual mean sea ice concentration, 2000-2100
21st century change in annual mean sea ice concentration (% per decade). This is a multi-model weighted average of 13 models* from the CMIP3 archive (which was compiled to assist preparation of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and is hosted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory). Only model output from climate model runs following the SRESA1B future emissions scenario was used here. The model weights and details of their derivation are shown in Bracegirdle et al. (2008).
*the models are: 'mpi_echam5', 'cccma_cgcm3_1', 'ukmo_hadgem1', 'ukmo_hadcm3', 'csiro_mk3_0', 'mri_cgcm2_3_2a', 'miroc3_2_medres', 'ipsl_cm4', 'inmcm3_0', 'giss_model_e_r', 'cnrm_cm3', 'bccr_bcm2_0' and 'iap_fgoals1_0_g'
Bracegirdle, T. J., W. M. Connolley, and J. Turner (2008), Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 113, D03103, doi: 10.1029/2007jd008933.